The UK got rid of coal—where’s it going next?

With the closure of its last coal-fired power plant, Ratcliffe-on-Soar, on September 30, 2024, the United Kingdom has marked a transformative milestone in its energy landscape. This historic closure signifies the end of a 142-year legacy of coal-powered electricity generation in a country that was once the cradle of the Industrial Revolution. The UK’s rapid transition from coal is significant—coal’s contribution to electricity generation plummeted from 40 percent in 2012 to less than two percent by 2019 and ultimately to zero in 2024.

As of 2023, half of the United Kingdom’s electricity generation derives from zero-carbon sources, with natural gas serving as a significant transitional fuel. The UK government has set ambitious targets, aiming to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 42 to 48 percent by 2027 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. A primary objective is to source all electricity from renewable sources by 2040, with offshore wind and solar energy identified as pivotal components in this shift.

However, the road to net-zero is complex, filled with uncertainties and challenges. Each scenario predicting the future is heavily nuanced, yet several key factors hold substantial weight beneath the projections. The phase-out of coal plants accelerates emissions reductions, yet the role of natural gas as a bridging fuel becomes critical during this transition.

The completion of the UK’s coal phase-out was a pivotal move in its decarbonization strategy. Natural gas has been endorsed as essential in the short term as the country ramps up wind and solar energy production while ensuring energy security. In 2022, natural gas accounted for around 40 percent of UK electricity generation, while coal’s contribution dwindled to negligible levels. The government envisages phasing out non-carbon capture natural gas by 2035, but in the meantime, it will remain a part of the energy mix.

The UK has identified offshore wind energy as a cornerstone of its renewable strategy. The government has pledged to boost offshore wind capacity to 50 GW by 2030, up from approximately 10 GW now. This commitment is reinforced by substantial investments from both public and private sectors, marking a strong ambition in the green energy sector. Recently, the government announced a $25 billion (£20 billion) investment plan in North Sea carbon capture and offshore wind projects over the next two decades, projected to generate 50,000 jobs and bolster the UK’s status as a leader in clean energy technologies.

The 2024 forecast is anticipated to be groundbreaking for the UK’s energy transition, with significant investments expected to further develop offshore wind capacity. Following a successful auction conducted by the Crown Estate in 2023 that secured leases for new offshore wind projects totaling 5 gigawatts, the UK government plans to conduct its next leasing round that could introduce an additional 7 GW of offshore wind capacity.

In their efforts, the government has greenlighted the construction of the Dogger Bank Wind Farm, projected to be the largest offshore wind installation globally. This massive project off the coast of Yorkshire aims to produce enough electricity to power millions of homes, affirming the UK’s serious commitment to sustainable energy.

However, the transition is not without its hurdles. Despite impressive strides in electric generation decarbonization, experts note that emission reductions in other sectors, such as agriculture, land use, and waste need to accelerate. Nonetheless, the alignment of continued support for renewable energy and the implementation of robust policies offer the UK the opportunity to emerge as a leader in the global transition towards a low-carbon economy.

The UK government has launched collaborations aimed at pioneering the development of floating wind technology as part of a broader commitment to innovate in the green energy sector. With a projected 400,000 new renewable energy jobs expected by 2030, the advancements in offshore wind energy demonstrate a promising economic and environmental synergy, propelling the UK toward its long-term sustainability objectives.

As the UK distances itself from fossil fuels, the necessity for an enduring energy solution remains—natural gas serves as a temporary measure to uphold energy security as the country expands its renewable energy framework. Efforts include bolstering the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) to drive decarbonization across industries, coupled with investments in carbon capture and nuclear energy pursuits. Each initiative is focused on limiting the extent of fossil fuel use while capturing related emissions, essential for achieving sustainable outcomes.

Although coal reliance has been swiftly reduced, the UK contrasts sharply with Germany’s energy transition narrative. While Germany has set ambitious carbon neutrality timelines, it remains heavily reliant on coal and natural gas, complicating its own emissions reduction efforts. United Kingdom’s rapid diminishment of coal usage and incorporation of renewables into its energy mix highlight its proactive approach and effective policy implementation over Germany’s more convoluted energy landscape.

The challenges that lie ahead for the UK are significant, yet the plans and investments made will undoubtedly establish a clearer path towards a sustainable future. UK’s commitment to renewable energy extends beyond environmental necessity; it embodies an economic opportunity aiming to drive growth while ensuring energy resilience and independence for future generations.